Probably the most important vote in my (adult) lifetime is about to happen – will Britain choose to leave or remain in the European Union (EU)?
I will not divulge which way I shall vote, but I can tell you what the result will be.
I genuinely do think that most politicians and broadcasters (most influentially “the BBC”) originally (for example 1+ year ago) thought that the result of the referendum would be a fairly easy victory for the ‘remain’ campaign. However, it has not surprised me to find out that the opinion polls are so close.
As I type this, the current approximate figures are:
- 40% remain in EU
- 40% leave EU
- 20% undecided.
I personally do not think that the vote directly equates to a referendum on immigration, but I certainly believe that a huge proportion of this country do. I personally do not think that immigration directly relates to Islamic terrorism, but I certainly believe that a huge proportion of this country do.
- Therefore, I believe that the result of the vote will be completely decided by whether-or-not there is a terrorist incident on Europe before 23rd June 2016.
Approximately 6 months ago, I started telling my friends and family that:
- If there is no major terrorist incident (in the 2 weeks before the vote), then the result will be 60:40% remain in EU.
- If there is a major terrorist incident (in the 2 weeks before the vote), then the result will be 60:40% leave the EU.
I really do think it is that simple. Only time will tell whether or not I will be correct.